Environmental Impact on Agriculture, Unemployment and Migration in the Middle East: Case Studies of Syria and Turkey

Undergraduate Distinction Project for LAS Global Studies at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Environmental Impact on Agriculture, Unemployment and Migration in the Middle East

Case Studies of Syria and Turkey

Emily Michelle Smith

Abstract

Climate change and migration are major concerns throughout the Middle Eastern region, particularly Syria and turkey, yet the empirical evidence on the impact climate change has on migration is limited. There is a lack of information on the factors that lead up to subsequent migration after a country suffers from prolonged climate change effects in the form of drought. Syria and Turkey are areas of focus since both countries rely heavily on the agricultural industry for employment and economic stability. Areas in Northwestern Syria and Southern Turkey experienced the strongest relationship of droughts negatively affecting the economy. This report offers a new perspective on climate change affecting migration, through the lens of multiple variables. These variables are wheat production rates, unemployment rates, and net migration rates. When drought threatens wheat production and water supply, unemployment and strain on public resources increases, leaving little opportunities for residents to cope. We can expect a lag time effect to occur from the onset of drought leading to migration, because the economy must be affected for residents to migrate. The Syrian and Turkish governments are not enacting sustainable water policies, and success is only seen when third party organizations step in and provide aid.

I.                Introduction

Climate change is at the forefront of research throughout the environmental industry. While many are beginning to understand that climate change is a crucial area of research needed for the earth’s conservation, not enough analysis has been conducted to understand the relationship between climate change and environmentally induced migration. Temperatures and sea levels are rising, and the frequency and duration of drought are increasing all over the world. As a result, people affected by climate change are forced to relocate their families, find new employment and drastically change their lifestyles. At present, a majority of climate change research focuses on South East Asia and the Pacific Islands. Also, the relationship between environmental degradation, unemployment, and migration is not well explored. I will be researching climate change affecting the Middle East, particularly Syria and Turkey, in order to check for a casual relationship between environmental degradation and economic hardship leading to subsequent migration. Syria and Turkey are relevant not only because of political conflicts, but also because of other conflicts deeply embedded in economic failures. “Drought is considered the major disaster occurring in the Arab region, where, the total people affected between the years 1970-2009, by drought is of about 38.09 million” (Abu Swaireh 2009).

The main argument of this paper is migration in the Middle East begins with drought affecting the economy and agriculture. First, drought creates a cycle of economic stagnation and degradation through unemployment in the agricultural sector of the economy. As agricultural jobs are lost, rural-urban migration spurs a cycle of societal conflict harming economic growth. Apart from reviewing scholarly literature, this is done by compiling and comparing statistical data offered by the Syrian and Turkish governments. My hypotheses are:

1.               Drought affects agricultural production negatively through lack of crop irrigation and access to fresh water.

2.               A decline in agricultural production leads to agricultural unemployment and then subsequent rural-urban migration.

For both countries, there are a variety of household surveys, personal accounts, agricultural production statistics, employment rates and atmospheric data available to the public that is used to correlate migration patterns. It is first necessary to comprehend sub-regional trends and how climate change is affecting individual households. Second, understanding the effects of drought at a national level in Syria and then a sub-regional level in Turkey shows a relationship between environmental changes and agricultural production and unemployment rates. After reviewing each country’s temperature changes as well as the data I have compiled from government databases, one can see that environmental and economic factors hurt migration in some areas of a country or region.

II.   Literature Review

a.               Climate Change, the Economy, and Migration

After 1950, the Middle East experienced anthropogenic climate change as well as global temperature increases. Anthropogenic climate change refers to human-induced emissions of greenhouse gasses. Human activity has increased the proportion of these gasses, specifically Carbon Dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O). The increases in gasses create climate-changing factors, such as temperature increases. This increases in temperature and lack of moisture in the atmosphere leads to drought. In the case of climate change, many think of drought regarding precipitation or lack thereof, but a drought is defined as a prolonged moisture deficiency (Palmer 1965). A moisture shortage can be immediate or delayed with the onset of increasing climate temperature, which is why Palmer (1965) suggests that agricultural drought is an important aspect to understand. He claims while crop failures, water scarcity, and other factors may be effects of drought; the destruction of the stable economy is a more adequate measure of drought severity (Palmer 1965).

Anthropogenic climate change is a large reason why drought is occurring and the society is affected. When the economy is disrupted, residents in the Middle Eastern regions perceive climate change negatively, and any inconsistency in the temperature that affects daily life is a cause for concern. Since the public may not be able to handle change, it is important to study why people move because they affect the original place and destination. Some become environmental migrants and flee internally, or escape internationally in the form of an environmental refugee or as a normal refugee. The United Nations High Commissioner Agency reports refugees as those who flee in the short term for a multitude of reasons, lack of resources especially (UNHCR 2006). The definitions for environmental refugees and refugees vary considerably, and the primary cause of a lack of concrete definition is because it is hard to single out environmental factors from others (Dun and Gemenne 2008). Categorizing different groups of refugees and migrants that are affected by the climate, the economy, and political persecution is not within the scope of this paper.

b.               The Middle East

Climate change induced migration is present in Syria and Turkey due to increases in temperature leading to drought, negative perceptions, agricultural failures and unemployment. In Syria, more than four in ten households say that they know people who have migrated to nearby, more urbanized areas due to climate pressures  (Wodon & Liverani 2014). Wheat and cottonseed production, as well as water availability, have decreased with the onset of drought. The Turks are experiencing increased temperatures and agricultural failures, specifically within the wheat production industry. In both countries, violence and political turmoil cause families to migrate.

Numerous climate change factors are occurring throughout this region. The most widespread being drought. Syria and Turkey are experiencing similar climate change effects through drought and a lack of water for crops. For instance, Wodon and Liverani (2014) correlate the relationship between precipitation, temperature, water scarcity, and migration. Lack of rain is seen to increase permanent, long-term movement due to a lack of water in the agricultural sector (Kadirbeyoglu et al. (2010), Weinthal et al. (2015), Kelley et al. (2015). The drought has disrupted the economies of Turkey and Syria, leading to diseases in animals and livestock, crop failures and air pollution among other factors. Fertile lands become dry and rainy seasons become shorter, which is the reason for water scarcity in the agricultural and public sectors. (Wodon & Liverani, 2014, p. 4). In addition to drought, factors such as soil erosion, lower water levels, and livestock losses are all effects of climate change in the Middle Eastern region. Raleigh and Jordan (2009) emphasize that dryer countries in the region, like Syria and Turkey, are more likely to engage in temporary and permanent migration to rural areas rather than wetter countries.

Perceptions are critical when understanding the social implications of climate change in this region. People believe environmental degradation is occurring and this will induce families to migrate elsewhere for fear of survival or lack of employment. Adoho and Wodon (2014a) conducted household surveys in five countries from 2006-2011.The countries are Algeria, the Arab Republic of Egypt, Morocco, the Syrian Arab Republic, Turkey, and the Republic of Yemen. Table 1 below shows that over half of all households believe that climate change factors were occurring and endangering their agriculture, animals, and access to water. 72% of families agree that the temperature is increasing. 59% of households also notice that droughts are becoming more frequent and 56% agree that less water is available in rivers, lakes, and streams where the public accesses drinking sources. Each statistic shows more than 50% of households agree that the Middle Eastern region is experiencing a vast variety of climate change effects and the effects are negative.

The study found that while environmental and climatic factors do play a role in driving migration, a range of other socioeconomic factors is at play (Wodon et al. 2014). “Syrian rural migrants, likewise, said that they feel inferior and unwelcome in large cities like Damascus. Wherever they go, they are treated like strangers and “different.” This perception makes finding a good job difficult” (Wodon et al. 2014).

 The societal tensions still push families out of a region or sub-region since many households realize neighbors have already left. Anna Damm (2009) examined Turkey and claimed that communities are very sensitive to push factors and migrate for more opportunity. An easier transition involved following similar ethnic enclaves in different parts of a country or internationally (Damm 2009). Each country is experiencing a variety of climate change factors that are pushing residents to move for resources, whether it is for food or employment. The agricultural sector is the most affected in both countries because economies are struggling to supply the demand for food and water to the public in rural and metropolitan areas.

Certain regions throughout Turkey and Syria are necessary to analyze because both have been experiencing environmental degradation in similar ways with temperature increases leading to drought. The 2006-2009 droughts in Syria and the 2007-2008 droughts that occurred in Turkey are the worst droughts the countries have seen in the past 50 years, due to the effect drought has on the economy. Residents are coping with climate change and ultimately turning to migration in order to find employment and sustain a decent quality of life. Many socioeconomic factors play a role in the eventual movement of people.

c.                Climate Change in Syria

Syria’s data is only available on a national scale from the USDA’s database; therefore, Syria helps establish the relationship between agriculture, unemployment, and migration at a macro level. I can look at Turkish data at a sub-regional level and provincial level, strengthening the argument that certain industries are affected by drought, leading to out-movement. “The drought caused 75 percent of Syria's farms to fail and 85 percent of livestock to die between 2006 and 2011, according to the United Nations" (Stokes 2016).  It is important to note that the Syrian case will not take into account data past 2008, which suggests that migration is due to climate change and not violence and political reasons.

Recurring droughts are a problem in Syria, since agricultural farmers are reliant on rainfall to irrigate crops (UNODRR 2009). Southern, southeastern and northeastern regions suffer from continuous drought and well below average precipitation (Erian et al. 2010). Such drought induced economic crisis makes Syria one of the most economically vulnerable countries in the Middle East. Moreover, the particularly hazardous drought of 2006-2009 caused an increase in rural-urban immigration throughout the northwestern part of Syria. High pressure has been created towards public service scarcity and the stability of different ethnic communities (Erian et al. 2010).

In Syria’s case, the public’s perception of climate change is necessary for understanding the cultural importance of migration and the effect climate change is having on communities. Household surveys offer insight into coping strategies among the Syrian public. In the present, political turmoil has cast a shadow over the country and migration is hard to research without taking into account a variety of factors leading to relocation.

 Nonetheless, the first line of defense among Syrians would be to adapt to climate change efforts without resulting to migration right away. Household surveys (Table 2 below) conducted in Syria by Adoho and Wodon (2014b) point out this willingness of adaptation. Movement varies per family because of wealth, availability of resources, community aid or family size. Each household shows variation, and it is hard to decipher one cause of migration because multiple factors will contribute to relocation. However, this survey offers the most useful insight of primary evidence. 65.5% of households will sell assets, apply for loans or withdraw children from school to create extra income. Astonishingly, 90% of households would use savings to stay in their home, which is a larger percentage than any other country surveyed. This survey shows that migration is the final option for Syrian families and many families from other countries. Once savings have run out, migration is the only alternative in attaining employment opportunities elsewhere. While Syrians will not migrate because of climate change alone, the difficulty of adaptation and the demand for new work is one primary factor caused by climate change.

For example, many articles, along with John Windle’s, The Ominous Story of Syria's Climate Refugees, explains that drought, along with unstable government and war caused millions of Syrian farmers to move to urbanized areas. With farmers turning to new industrial professions and social uprisings becoming more dangerous, Syrians flee to other regions. Kelly et al. (2015), from the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, stated that Syria and the greater Fertile Crescent experienced an extreme drought in the mid-2000s. They hypothesize that the drought harmed the agricultural sector and fueled social tensions, which led to an eventual civil war. There is a growing demand for water and other natural resources along with an increasingly urban population that heightens tension (Erian and colleagues 2010). The effects of migrating to cities not only harms the agricultural sector but also puts more strain on public services, causing political and societal tensions to rise.

d.               Climate Change in Turkey

Turkey, like most Middle Eastern countries, is not a country of focus when empirically studying environmental change and migration. Zeynep Kadirbeyoglu (2010) reports that in the 1960s, immigration became more apparent with modernization and the fast paced industrial movement. Turkey is located in the eastern part of the Mediterranean Basin, an area extremely vulnerable to climate change in the present and future (IPCC 2007; IPCC 2013). In particular, Southern Turkey is affected by climate change in the form of rising temperatures and drought. From 1960-2010, the number of warm days has been increasing across Turkey, and annual total precipitation is decreasing in Southern Turkey (Sensoy et al. 2013). In turn, rising temperatures contribute to an increased amount of short-term displacement throughout the country. The longest and most severe droughts in the past 40 years occurred in 1971-1974, 1983-1984, 1989-1990, 1996- 2001 and 2007-2008 (Kurnaz 2014). However, no drought has affected the economy and particularly the agricultural sector like the 2007-2008 droughts because policies for water sustainability have not been properly introduced throughout the entire country. The onset of many reoccurring droughts each decade causes migration, especially among rural families.

A study conducted by Mustafa Goken (2016), using two different reanalysis products created by ECMWF: ERA-Interim and ERA-Interim/Land datasets show the relation between temperature and precipitation in Turkey. Data from one hundred weather stations across the country show a yearly warming of 1.26ºC from 1979 to 2010. This trend is vastly different than the global warming trends at 0.72ºC from 1951-2012 (Goken, 2016, IPCC, 2014). Goken (2016) notes that urban heating effects combined with temperature changes led to such an increase in warm temperature. At a regional level, the highest warming (1.8ºC) occurs in the west near the Aegean Sea. Apart from Turkey’s mountainous landscape, southern regions have been experiencing alarming effects of climate change. Lack of rain and snowfall has led to retreating groundwater and rising sea levels along the Turkish coast (Sen and colleagues, 2012).

After noticing the changes in Turkey’s atmosphere throughout the southern region, it is important to look at one particular case that has been affected immensely by economic hardship and migration. Southern Turkey has been experiencing drought-induced migration from the onset of increased temperatures, leading to extreme heat. “The country’s central, southern, and southeastern regions are currently in a semi-arid climate band and are faced with the risk of desertification” (Kurnaz, 2014, p. 3). Kadirbeyoglu (2010) and Martin (2013) emphasize the case of Suruç, a district in the sub-region of Sanliurfa, which is a part of the drought ridden main region of Anatolia. Both authors find drying trends in a particularly agricultural area that has negatively impacted crop production. In the past, Suruç had an abundance of easily attainable groundwater, about one meter underground. Kadirbeyoglu (2010) offers insight into the water deficiency problem within Suruç, and much of Southern Turkey. He shows that groundwater depletion makes crop irrigation in Suruç nearly impossible because new irrigation technologies have not been introduced. Groundwater began falling in the 1970s, and has since depleted a fair amount in 25-30 years.

Alternatives to providing water for crops are limited due to a decrease in winter rainfall by 60% in the past decade and limited availability of drinking water. According to Kadirbeyoglu (2010), the only plausible alternative is to migrate for the summer months in hopes of agricultural employment elsewhere or to permanently relocate to different areas of the country that are not experiencing these effects. Inequality and economic vulnerability is evident within the district due to wealthier families having better opportunities to move to city centers, while others must maintain their livelihoods barely yielding crops and without access to drinking water. Kadirbeyoglu (2010) conducted an interview with a realtor in Suruç. The Turkish realtor noticed his community depleting, housing markets suffering, and people moving to other villages with water sustainability plans. Kadirbeyoglu (2010) also reported that out of twenty interviewees from Suruç, only two currently remain in the district. Therefore, increased annual temperatures lead to unemployment in the agricultural and housing industries.

III. Government and Policy

To mitigate negative regional impacts of climate change and subsequent migration, the governments of Syria and Turkey have implemented programs that include hydrating agricultural fields, providing water to families, and investing in new drought resistant seed technologies. Limited water supplies have left agricultural crops without proper nourishment and yearly yields have suffered in both countries.

In order to cope with water scarcity and agricultural issues, the Turkish government has enacted one main development project. The Southeast Anatolia Development Project involved building 22 dams and 19 hydropower plants on the Tigris and Euphrates rivers in the Southeastern part of Turkey. This massive irrigation system is causing concern for Syria and Iraq, which lies downstream of the dam and would diminish water quantity and quality (Voza and colleagues, 2012). Since 1999, this project substantially irrigates 1.8 million hectares of farmland. The Good Agricultural Practice (GAP) project does not come without conflict because dividing the water between the Tigris and Euphrates only provides countries with the amount of water at or slightly above scarcity. Voza et al. (2012) show that the Turkish government is making claims to the water and disagreeing with reducing demand for water, causing conflict within the Middle Eastern region. Citizens that have migrated indicated that they would migrate back with the success of the GAP (Kadirbeyoglu, 2010). Unfortunately, water conflict will only become more apparent and cause increased demand that cannot reach supply as climate change continues to worsen. Non-governmental organizations are beginning to fight for sustainability but only in a select few sub-regions. To combat food scarcity, the government began importing wheat, producing yield-monitoring systems, and gave aid to rural farmers. No matter what policies are put in place to combat drought affecting crops and water sources, the temperatures are still rising and the Turkish government is trying to find long-term solutions.

Although Turkey and Syria have interests in the fresh water given by the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, the Syrian government is trying to cope with climate change effects as well. The governments initiatives have proven unsuccessful are proving unsuccessful. Former Syrian president Hafez al-Assad initiated land redistribution methods and irrigation systems, but failed to take into account exploitable and unsustainable methods (Kelley et al. 2014). For instance, the exploitation of groundwater has led to the drying of many rivers. Ineffective efforts provoked migration, and rapid demographic change is causing instability within the country. Kelley et al. (2014) emphasized: “the most significant consequence was the movement of as many as 1.5 million people from rural farming areas to the peripheries of urban centers” (p. 3241). This Syrian example is beneficial in explaining the causes of climate change factors affecting the economy and eventually leading to mass migration. It is interesting to note that the severe drought from 2006-2009 foreshadowed future environmental and regime instability problems in the Middle Eastern region for years to come.

IV. Data and Methods

Data for Syria and Turkey was found through comprehensive online databases from United States and Turkish governments. The aim of this paper is to understand how drought affects different sectors of the Syrian and Turkish economies. This is done through constructing a secondary database with yearly crop production rates, unemployment rates, and net migration rates. The secondary database was compiled with information directly pertaining the operationalizing the main hypothesis. How does drought affect agricultural production, which leads to unemployment and subsequent rural-urban migration? I hypothesize that agricultural production will decrease because of water scarcity in the form of crop irrigation and access to fresh water. I also assume that the decline in agricultural production leads to agricultural unemployment and then rural-urban migration.

This quantitative portion of the paper takes lag time into account when analyzing the cycle of economic stagnation and degradation that stems from drought. Wheat production is necessary to analyze because agricultural employment is dependent on yearly yields and crops available to the public. I expect to see agricultural unemployment and migration closely correlated because the economy plays a large role on migration; therefore, I run a bivariate correlation on those two variables for the study in Turkey. When analyzing Syria and looking at national trends, I use the World Resource Institute and look at water stress affecting cottonseed and wheat. The amount of water stress not only negatively affects production rates, but also employment in a country heavily reliant on certain crops.

            Data from Turkey comes from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TSI), which is among the best-compiled economic statistics of any Middle Eastern country for this paper, which is an active component of why Turkey is analyzed. Sub-regional data is used in Turkey because the Turkish Statistical Institute (TSI) offers internal migration data, unlike Syria’s national statistics. Each province in Turkey is combined into 26 sub-regions. After analyzing national trends of the three main variables affected by drought, which are wheat production, agricultural unemployment, and net migration, assumptions were created at a sub-regional scale. The central assumption is that as agricultural unemployment increases within a sub-region, there will be a lag time of one to three years before migration out of the sub-region occurs. Lag time is necessary to take into account because migration is a last resort. Resources and time are extinguished before a migrant chooses to leave a sub-region. It is important to establish the relationship between the three core variables that are affected by climate change through a lens of different factors. These factors include geography, resource availability, diversification in the local economy and sustainable conflict within a particular region. Specific sub-regions will be chosen in favor of and against hypotheses involving the three central variables. Each province is a part of a level 2-sub region categorized by the Turkish Statistical Institute (See Appendix 1).

a.               Syrian Data- National Trends

The United States Department of Agriculture provided wheat production and unemployment information for Syria from 2002-2008. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees supplied refugee data on a yearly basis from 2003 to 2007. After gathering information, I look at yearly trends to establish that climate affects the economy in a negative way. The 2006-2009 Syrian drought proves detrimental to society and Syrian families are coping with a lack of economic resources, which makes staying in rural and resource deficient areas difficult.

It is important to note the political factors associated with migration in Syria. After the Arab Spring and prevalence of ISIS beginning in 2008, migration out of the nation has mainly been due to violence and political persecution. To gain an understanding of climate change affecting migration with little relation to war and violence, this paper conducted its research on Syria before 2008.

 Two valuable commodities are wheat and cottonseed. Cottonseed, used for the production of textiles and garments, used to be one of Syria’s top exports until 2009. Wheat is “Syria’s primary agricultural crop, accounting for about 60% of cultivated agriculture land” (Ahmed et al. 2016). Wheat is a significant export and families consume this product in the form of bread, which is necessary for maintaining a sustainable living. The United States Department of Agriculture releases yearly and monthly world agricultural production statistics. For cottonseed, I collected monthly reports of agricultural production beginning in 2002 and ending in 2008. I chose to stop collecting data after 2008 due to political clouding. I decided to collect data every four months of each year, beginning in August 2002 when data is first available and ending in August 2008 for six years of data collection. I measured data for August, April, and December because each month indicated a new season. In Syria, August signifies the end of harvesting, April marks the beginning of crop growth, and December is when crops are planted. Figure 1 shows the fluctuation of production.

August 2002 to April 2004, crop production is steady at .57 and .56 million metric tons (mmt). From August 2004 to December 2006, production varied from .60mmt to .71mmt and fluctuated a small amount in between. In April 2007, however, there was a drop in cottonseed production to .16mmt and continued until 2008. The reduction is important to note because Syria experienced a harsh drought beginning in 2006. This decline in cottonseed production in 2007 is likely due to the lag effect the drought had on agricultural output and lack of water for crop irrigation. A gradual increase in production followed in early 2008, but later years showed steady decreases and never recovered. The 2007 decrease is astonishing and signaled the beginning of the decline of the Syrian textile industry. According to an IRIN News article (2009), exports for the last quarter of 2008 had seen year on year decrease of 75 percent. Industry accounts for some 28 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP).” This proves detrimental to Syrian society, which relies on its exports for economic growth. The decline of the textile industry inevitably leads to other industries being affected, such as the production of cereals and food for the people. Figure 2 below indicates percentage of cotton that is grown in areas facing different levels of water stress. This crop consumes 4,029m3 of water per ton of yield. Syria has extremely high levels of water stress when producing cottonseed.

After finding the decline of cottonseed production and the textile industry in 2008 and 2009, an in-depth look at wheat production during those two years followed. Using the USDA dataset, I found a significant decrease in wheat production in 2008 at 2,139mmt (-47% growth rate) compared to the previous year to 4,041mmt. Like cottonseed, it is plausible to say that the drought beginning in 2006 and ending in 2009 had an effect on wheat production because other agricultural sectors were affected as well. A lack of irrigation for one main crop will also affect other necessary crops for the Syrian economy.

Corresponding data on unemployment clearly shows the impact the 2006-2009 had on the Syrian economy. According to Trading Economics (2016), unemployment rates are available annually from 2006 to 2012.  From 2006 to 2008, Syria saw the highest unemployment rate in 2008 at 10.9%, which is seen in Figure 3 below. The unemployment rate was at 8.3% in 2006 and 9.2% in 2007. The rate was extremely high in 2008 then unemployment decreased tremendously in 2009 and 2010. In 2009, the drought was occurring for three years and Syrian residents had to search for employment in sectors other than agriculture or textiles. Unfortunately, internal movement patterns for Syria are unavailable, but the increase in unemployment means that families found other ways to survive and cope. When no more options are available, migration is a common alternative. With political tensions increasing as years pass by, there is less likelihood that a majority of migrants can return home (Dadush et al. 2016).

While researching migration patterns in Syria, the census is the only available tool that monitors Syrian net migration. For this paper, the poll is not used because it is conducted every five years and would not offer sufficient data for a yearly comparison. However, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) Agency compiles refugee data for many countries. Each report is highly detailed and highlights the United Nation’s stance on internally displaced persons as well as different types of migrants throughout the globe. In the case of Syria, I was able to use data from 2003-2008, which is very similar to agricultural production and unemployment rates available.

After investigating the UNHCR Global Refugee Trends conducted at the end of 2003, Syria had 3,681 refugees that migrated out of the country in search of international destinations. In 2004, there was a sharp increase to 15,604 refugees. Another increase occurred in 2005 with 16,281 refugees migrating out of the country. At the end of 2006, 12,387 refugees fled. The most interesting point to note is an astonishing increase in 2007, where 45,000 refugees escaped from Syria. The numbers since then have only been growing at fast rates. The year 2007 and thereafter show larger increases in Syrian refugees to date, and this is because of economic conditions due to the agricultural sector declining as well as unemployment rates rising. It is interesting to note that an increase in temperature and decrease in moisture can cause an effect on one country’s economic profile; all factors relate to each other. There is evidence to suggest that Syrian residents cannot cope with adapting to climate change factors and have to escape the country for more opportunity.

Another hypothesis that stems from the evidence presented about agricultural production and economic stagnation suggests that climate change inevitably led to the internal Syrian conflict. A lack of resources sparks conflict among the population, and this conflict potentially leads to political and societal differences. “The drought had displaced Syrians long before the conflict began," said Francesco Femia, president of the Center for Climate Security. "And what is frightening is that analysts who study the region completely missed it” (Stokes 2016). One country can only provide so many resources for its inhabitants. When unemployment levels increase, that can be assumed to increase poverty rates as well. Climate change simply magnifies the threats that society faces when an economic downturn is apparent. Understanding and explaining the how the Syrian conflict was created from the drought is not within the scope of this paper. This paper is meant to inform others that the Syrian conflict potentially began because drought affected multiple sectors of the economy through increased unemployment rates and crop scarcity.

b.         Turkish Data- National Trends

The TSI has datasets on agricultural, migration, environmental, and health at national, sub-regional and provincial levels. In order to understand the relationship between climate change and migration, it is important to take into account agricultural and economic factors that are altered due to changes in the environment. One drought period in particular that significantly affected the economy was in 2007-2008 (Kurnaz, 2014). Two highly affected areas in Southwestern and Southeastern Turkey are heavily reliant on agriculture and experienced a substantial increase in out-migration due to the 2007-2008 drought. Lag time is accounted for due to economic downturn later leading to migration when residents exhaust financial resources.     

The Turkish database offers production numbers on a variety of agricultural commodities. “Turkey, between Europe and the Middle East, is an important grain processor which has carved out a significant role supplying flour to countries in the region and around the world” (Lyddon 2016). This section on Turkey will focus on fluctuating wheat production levels from 2007 to 2013. Turkish migration data is available annually from 2007-2013; therefore, a similar agricultural production timeline is used.

    Figure 4 below shows the wheat production trends in Turkey. The sharp decrease in production post-2008 occurs after the major Turkish drought began in 2007. First, 2007 shows production for all 156 provinces measured at 22,159 tons. 2007 was the highest yield year in the 2007-2014 time frame. Production in 2008, decreased significantly to 15,000 tons and the following year decreased marginally to 14,697 tons. It is important to note 2007 marks the year that many areas in Turkey experienced a significant drought, which led to this drop in agricultural production. Production later rose in 2010 to 16,028 tons and continues fluctuating by 1,000 tons in the following years. Agriculture is reliant on irrigation and overall precipitation. Investigating a reduction in precipitation as well as the number of days with precipitation and high moisture are proper measurements to study drought.

It is important to understand rural unemployment levels to see if the decrease in wheat production in 2008 and 2009 led to economic stress. This is shown through Figure 5 below. “Agricultural sector employs almost 42% of an economically active population, contributes to approximately 14% to the Gross National Product (GNP) and accounts for almost 11% of the total value of exports in Turkey” (Anonim 2002). The agricultural sector is a large part of the Turkish economy. When 42% of the employed population is put under hardship, migration is a viable alternative to a dying industry. When the agricultural employment is concentrated in one sector that greatly depends on the climate, adverse outcomes will occur since Turkey’s temperatures are increasing yearly. Families are unable to cope and make a living in rural farming areas, therefore, have no choice but to move to urban cities. I collected unemployment level data in the form of rural unemployment from 2007-2013. Data was collected on individuals ages 15 and above, and provinces with less than 2000 people were too small of a sample size for the database to measure.

There are some patterns present, especially in 2009. Unemployment increased in 2007 and 2008 from 506,000 to 508,000. In 2009, unemployment rose sharply to 724,000. The unemployment rate began decreasing in 2010 to 621,000 individuals and then more in the following two years, at 528,000 and 500,000. Levels rose again in 2013 at 576,000, and further data is not available. These patterns are all affected by the harsh drought beginning in 2007. The unemployment level was highest in 2009, which correlates with a lag time of drought first affecting wheat production. Unemployment rates show the economic hardship a country is facing in providing employment opportunities for its residents. If Turkish unemployment increased in 2009, this could be due to agricultural job loss and public competition. Families were unable to cope with the loss of industry and commodity and moved to urbanized areas where employment is more abundant. When families migrate, this puts a strain on the public employment sector causing competition. Climate change through drought creates a snowball effect of unfavorable economic conditions in all sectors of the established economy.

The TSI also offers provincial level data on internal migration. Internal migration is necessary to study since most environmentally displaced families prefer to urbanize or move to another district within one country. It is hard to cross international borders, especially without the economic or financial resources to do so. The net migration rate is used to examine how many migrants leave a sub-region. According to Eurostat’s (2000) Demographic statistics and definitions, net migration is defined as “the difference between immigration into and emigration from a given area during the year (net migration is negative when the number of emigrants exceeds the number of immigrants)” (p. 121). Wheat production and agricultural unemployment rates can be measured at a national scale, but internal migration in each sub-region and province is difficult to analyze at a macro level. The analysis section will incorporate how drought affects the economies of Turkish sub-regions, which then causes increased net migration rates out of certain areas. These relationships will is examined in the next section, where the bulk of research and data collection occurred.

V. Analysis

To gain a better understanding of the relationship between agricultural unemployment and net migration, correlation coefficients are used in Table 3 below. A coefficient less than .10 is weak, one between .10 and .20 is a moderate relationship, and a coefficient greater than .20 indicates a strong relationship (Dalton 2008). As agricultural unemployment increases, net migration will decrease, showing a positive coefficient and vice versa. Provinces in Southern Turkey, such as Adana, Mesin, Sanlıurfa, Diyarbakır, Mardin, Batman, Şırnak, and Siirt, show a positive correlation. This positive relationship is due to the geography of the land. These provinces are located in the harshest drought-ridden areas in Turkey. “Air cools at the poles and then descends causing high-pressure zones… perhaps the major consequence of climate change with regard to Turkey and the Mediterranean region is the northward shift of this high-pressure band to around 30˚ latitude as the world’s average temperature increases” (Kurnaz 2014, p. 3). Currently, Turkeys climate in the south, southeast, and southwest are facing desertification with the onset of drought, much like Syria’s drought-ridden country. Once desertification occurs, the areas in the north and northwest will eventually experience what Southern Turkey is experiencing at this moment, and the cycle will only continue.

The strongest negative cases occur in Northwestern Turkey: Manisa, Afyon, Kütahya, Uşak, Tekirdağ, Edirne, Kırklareli, where the main urban city centers are located. A negative relationship means that agricultural unemployment decreases leading to more in-migration in that particular region. In the next section of this paper, provinces and regions that exhibit strong positive and negative correlations will be examined. One preliminary assumption for a negative relationship is that agricultural unemployment decreases as a city urbanizes and more employment opportunities are found in urbanized industries. Another hypothesis that stems from the previous is that out-migration increases when organizations are unable to find sustainable alternatives to fresh water and resources become too scarce.

Level 2 Sub-Region

Correlation Coefficient

Adana,Mersin

0.537

Ağrı, Kars, Iğdır, Ardahan

0.584

Ankara

-0.199

Antalya,Isparta,Burdur

-0.641

Aydın,Denizli,Muğla

-0.662

Balıkesir,Çanakkale

-0.363

Bursa,Eskişehir,Bilecik

0.195

Erzurum, Erzincan, Bayburt

0.442

Gaziantep, Adıyaman, Kilis

-0.528

Hatay,Kahramanmaraş,Osmaniye

-0.438

Istanbul

-0.312

Izmir

-0.612

Kastamonu, Çankırı, Sinop

----

Kayseri, Sivas, Yozgat

-0.388

Kırıkkale,Aksaray,Niğde,Nevşehir

-0.614

Kocaeli,Sakarya,Düzce,Bolu,Yalova

-0.476

Konya,Karaman

-0.687

Malatya, Elazığ, Bingöl, Tunceli

-0.343

Manisa,Afyon,Kütahya,Uşak

-0.892

Mardin, Batman, Şırnak, Siirt

0.040

Samsun, Tokat, Çorum, Amasya

-0.516

Sanlıurfa, Diyarbakır

0.535

Tekirdağ,Edirne,Kırklareli

-0.941

Trabzon, Ordu, Giresun, Rize, Artvin, Gümüşhane

-0.329

Van, Muş, Bitlis, Hakkari

-0.360

Zonguldak, Karabük, Bartın

-0.650

VI. Findings

Adana and Mersin (TR62) are two provinces of interest that showed a positive relationship between agricultural unemployment leading to increased migration out of the regions. Figure 6 below shows each variable affected by drought. Keep in mind that the harshest drought between the measured time period occurred in late 2007 and continued until the end of 2008. The province is located in the southeastern part of the country. Climate PDSI data was conducted in Akdere and Antakya, two cities surrounding TR62, to see what levels of precipitation were present from 2007-2013. Figure 7 below shows the pattern. This region experienced two main periods of decreased precipitation throughout the 2007-2013 timeframe. There are periods of precipitation above the x-axis line and periods of drought below the x-axis. Akdere has more precipitation throughout the timeframe than Antakya, even though these cities are 377 kilometers apart. Mersin and Adana, which are located at the top of the peninsula separating the four provinces, would be placed in the middle of both trend lines. It can be assumed that TR62 lies in the center of both trend lines and experienced extreme fluctuations in precipitation.

Adana is the fourth largest city in Turkey and situated in the most fertile agricultural area in the country (Sansal). Adana is located on River Seyhan, so it is interesting that even with a water source, agricultural crop production decreased from 1.033 kilotons to .906 kilotons in 2009-2010. The graph is difficult to interpret with the naked eye, so a linear trend line is present. Mersin, the second province of the sub-region, is the largest port of the Turkish Mediterranean region and a highly crowded city with a population size of 1.8 million. Known for its history and tourist attractions, Mersin is a modern city reliant on the tourism industry (Sansal).  According to Severmutlu et al. (2011), the soil environment in Mersin proves harsh for drought stress. After the onset of the 2007 drought, t province’s soil, which has a sandy nature, showed drought stress causing rapid declines in visual quality of crops. Mersin relies on its tourism industry but is not heavily reliant on agricultural production due to its soil vulnerability to drought stress.

There is a negative trend line from 2007-2013 for crop production. For any particular crop, the effect of increased temperatures will depend on individual crops sunlight preferences and the soil composition. At an aggregate level, it is assumed that when higher temperatures exceed a crop’s optimum temperature, yields will decline (EPA- Climate Impacts on Agriculture). This is the case in sub-region TR62, where yearly temperatures in Turkey have been increasing (EPA) At the end of 2007, agricultural unemployment rose dramatically from 18,000 workers in 2008 to 41,000 workers in 2009, which occurred before crop production levels plummeted. A lag time of 2 years is shown leading to net migration out of the region from 1,256 out-migrants in 2007 to 21,000 out-migrants at the end of 2010. The agricultural downfall in Adana and the failure of agriculture to thrive in Mersin’s drought stressed soil led to the increase out-migration after the industry suffered.

The next sub-region of Sanlıurfa and Diyarbakı (Level 2: TRC2) has a positive correlation coefficient of 0.535, similar to the previous sub-region TR62. A strong positive correlation coefficient from a region located in Southern Turkey matches my preliminary hypothesis. It is important to analyze information about the two provinces that make up TRC2 to discover the relationship between drought and the three dependent variables. This sub-region is located in Southeast Turkey and north of the Syrian border. I expect to see adverse effects on the agricultural sector and economy from the 2007 and 2008 drought. Figure 8 below shows similar patterns compared to sub-region TR62. After the drought had taken effect, there was a sharp increase in agricultural unemployment beginning in mid-2007 and continuing until mid-2008.  Agricultural unemployment decreased rapidly in the coming years, either due to a large supply of jobs that became available after the large migration or the rise of new technological industries.

This sub-region is in the South Eastern Anatolian region. As mentioned previously, the district of Suruç is located in the province of Sanliurfa.  For many districts located there, farming is a large industry because many spices, peppers, wheat and other commodities are cherished in the Southeast (Nabhan 2010). Unfortunately, the prices for agricultural products from this land are skyrocketing because of scarcity from drought. Nabhan (2010) emphasizes Urfa and Maras chilies from the region and points out that the 2007 drought has reduced harvest by 60%. Wheat production in this area is overshadowed from the previous spice production; therefore, agricultural unemployment decreased even though wheat production shows a growing trend. Production of wheat inevitably declined in late 2007 from 1.67 kilotons to .86 kilotons, and production increased in the following years.

One primary determinant when someone migrates is the probability of finding employment in the destination through different industries (Filiztekin et al. 2008). Diyakabir recently became a world heritage site for its magnificent black basalt walls located near the Tigris River. The province relies heavily on tourism and farming to upkeep the land (Richardson 2015). Agricultural unemployment began increasing after the onset of the 2007-2008 drought, making opportunities in urban centers more appealing. This is why there was a significant outflow of migrants starting in 2009 until 2011. Lag time is accounted for because agricultural unemployment stopped rising in 2009 and out-migration began increasing in 2009.

Sub region TRA1, which consists of Erzurum, Erzincan and Bayburt, is the final case examined that shows results for the central hypothesis. Figure 9 above indicates more fluctuation with agricultural unemployment and net migration than previous sub-regions, but there is a positive correlation coefficient of 0.442, which indicates a strong relationship. Agricultural unemployment has a positive effect on net migration out of the sub-region. Unemployment began rising in early 2008 and continued until late 2008/early 2009. A significant lag time of ~1.5 years is evident because net migration did not begin to fall until the end of 2010.

There is a positive wheat production trend even though production levels showed the substantial decrease after 2009. The positive linear trend is due to the largest increase in output in 2012. “Population decrease in agriculture is at a level of increasing labor productivity” (Peker 2004). As people leave economy through minimal employment possibilities, time will produce those jobs again after the market is no longer saturated. There will be more pressure on those who are still employed to produce at a high level of output.

In the case of Erzurum and agricultural employment, a large organized industrial park was introduced to package agricultural products before the drought began. This introduction led to an increase of in-migration to the province. Migrants from rural areas moved to the soon-to-be urban hotspot Erzurum. The population is 769,085, and the industrial boom contributed to this large population. The factory was introduced before the drought occurred. After the drought, the agricultural employment sector fluctuated in the following years. Migration into the province has not returned during the period examined as well.

    Turkey is comprised of 26 sub-regions, and this paper examined three cases that prove drought negatively affects three important sectors in society. When a drought is prolonged for a stretch of time, like the drought from 2007-2008, the aftershock occurs after a period of lag time. In most cases examined, agricultural unemployment or wheat production levels were negatively affected first and then net migration numbers out of the province increased. This trend is seen because the sub-regions examined are located in Southern Turkey. This area is where the agricultural sector is heavily relied on and where drought is affecting the arid land. According to the Turkey Daily News, the 2007 drought, “has cost Turkey between YTL 2.5 billion and YTL 3 billion this year, acutely affecting nearly 435,000 farmers Mehdi Eker, Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, announced in his statement to Referans” (Boyacioglu 2007). The article points out that wheat production throughout the country dropped by 12.2%. This rapid decline in wheat production increased prices of the commodity that is used by the entire population. In 2007, the Turkish government began importing wheat, producing yield monitoring systems, and giving aid to rural farmers to help the market price fluctuations. Nonetheless, the data shows that the economies of sub-regions TR62, TRC2, and TRA1 were still affected in employment and migration sectors even though the government tried to offset the negative effects.

After examining three sub-regions that are negatively impacted by the 2007-8 drought regarding agricultural unemployment, wheat production, and net migration, it is important to analyze outliers that support an opposite trend. The least correlated cases when looking at unemployment and immigration come from urban city centers where agriculture is not the main sector of importance or where there is abundant rainfall and snowfall in the North. The sub-regions that fall into these categories are TR21, TR33, TR31, and TR81. There are two cases located in Southern Turkey that exhibit unexpected outcomes when thinking about drought affecting certain economic sectors.

Konya, shown in Figure 10 below, is located in the TR52 sub region along with Karaman. This sub region is located in Southwestern Turkey and is a major city in the Central Anatolia Region. According to Leonardi (2016), this area has been hit the hardest by drought because of below average rainfall patterns. There is a correlation of -0.68 that indicates a strong adverse relationship between agricultural unemployment and migration. Konya and Karaman are heavily invested in the grain industry so it is unusual that the data presented from 2007-2013 shows wheat production steadily increasing even though the sub region was affected by the drought (Leonardi et al 2016). The success is due to proper implementation of water sustainability policies in this particular area.

The World Wildlife Foundation in Turkey kick started a conservation project aimed at conserving water in Konya’s Closed Water Basin, which is a source of irrigation not only for crops but also wildlife. “Many of the world's river basins are either 'closed' or are 'closing', as water use within them exceeds or is approaching the amount of renewable water available” (Carriger). Sewage from the heavily populated city of Konya and agricultural drainage affect the basin’s usefulness as a source of fresh water (Divrak and Demirayak 2011). This project raised awareness about the limited water resources available in this region. Stakeholder involvement increased with several other notable projects aimed at protecting and using fresh water in a sustainable manner. For example, the WWF and local government authorities acting through the Council of Ministers enacted agricultural subsidies. The Cabinet reduced interest rates to zero for credits used to finance irrigation systems in the area. Also, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) provided grants for sprinkling irrigation systems (Divrak and Demirayak 2011). TR52 received a lot of aid from multiple organizations and local officials to protect the Konya water basin and sustain the useful water source, which is why this sub region was not negatively affected by drought in terms of economic and agricultural prosperity.

Some sub-regions, with large out-migration numbers after the drought, do not receive assistance like Konya and Karaman because non-governmental organizations are not forming as advocates for the environment like the WWF. Why are these organizations and local government officials taking an interest in TR52 and not other sub-regions seriously affected by drought? The basin must be conserved because the water supply does not empty out into larger bodies of water. Also, the Beysehir Lake is located in the western part of Konya. It is the largest source of fresh water in Turkey and also important for national park conservation. Cities, like Konya, with larger populations require more resources and being located near such a large body of water means that Konya will receive more benefits.

Sub-region TR61 is located in the Southwest of Turkey is comprised of Antalya, Isparta, and Burdur. There is a negative correlation of -0.64 between agricultural unemployment and migration even though there was a large out-flow of migrants mid-2007. Figure 11 above illustrates the steady influx of immigrants after the drought began that offsets the large out-flow of immigrants in the year 2007. There is an overall positive wheat production trend because Isparta, one province within the sub-region is well equipped for production from fruits to grains. When Isparta was audited for Good Agricultural Practices (GAP), it reported having drip irrigation systems, pesticide preparation areas, warehouses, and packaging units (Koç et al. 2009), which is why wheat production did not decrease.

The other two provinces located within the sub-region shed light on the negative correlation between agricultural unemployment and net-migration, particularly through tourism and conservation projects aimed at protecting the land’s ecology. Antalya is a Turkish resort province that relies heavily on tourism for economic stability and does not employ a majority of residents in the agricultural sector. Burdur, on the other hand, has a large agricultural population and has a conservation site of Burdur Lake. The Burdur Lake is home to 70% of the world’s white-headed duck population (Adaman et al. 2009). Since the lake supports this species and is a valuable water source, the Ramsar Joint Nature Conservation Committee decided to designate the lake as a “hard park” conservation site. This means that the lake and surrounding areas will remain untouched so water can be shared properly and the wildlife will still thrive.  The environmental damage already occurring is due to pollution and increased temperatures leading to less water volume. The mixture of different conservation regulations takes a very long time to put into practice, and the lack of initiatives from local executive bodies to take measures against conditions that cause environmental degradation are slow. There are many industrial zones around the lake and, “industrialists claim that conservation of Burdur Lake prohibits further business investments” (Adaman et al., 2009, p. 791). The general public does not see the site's conservation status as a constraint to local economic development, and residents also go to the neighboring province of Antalya for work or leisure (Adaman et al. 2009). Therefore, sub-region is still an area where migrants live, because of tourism and economic stability.

VII. Conclusions and Discussion

Climate change and migration in the Middle East are topics of interest gaining momentum. This report argues that climate change in the form of drought spurs issues in the agricultural sector. Once production of different agricultural commodities such as cottonseed and wheat decline, employment is affected and subsequent rural-urban migration occurs. Syria and Turkey’s economies are heavily reliant on the agriculture sector, so the economies of these nations are volatile to climate changes. The first hypothesis assumed that drought affects agricultural production negatively through lack of crop irrigation and access to fresh water. The second hypothesis expects a decline in agricultural production will lead to agricultural unemployment and then subsequent rural-urban migration.

The onset of anthropogenic climate change in the Middle East, induced by greenhouse gases and large carbon footprints, is becoming a problem throughout a predominantly dry and arid region. Drought has disrupted the economies of Syria and Turkey in particular through diseases in animals and livestock, crop failures, and air pollution among other factors. Fertile lands become dry and rainy seasons become shorter, which is the reason for water scarcity in the agricultural and public sector is an issue of importance. 72% of families in the Middle East believe that temperatures are increases and 56% agree that less water is available in common resources. When residents are unable to cope with large changes to everyday lifestyles, migration is a viable option for more opportunity. However, migration may cause societal tension from the sharing of limited resources in new destinations.

When examining Syria at a macro-level, using national data, findings after 2008 were not used due to political clouding and civil unrest within the country. Southern, southeastern and northeastern regions suffer from continuous drought and well below average precipitation. The 2006-2009 drought was examined, which caused 75% of Syria’s farms to fail and 85% of livestock to die. 90% of households would use savings to stay in their home, but when savings are extinguished, migration occurs. The urban population is increasing because of rural movement, which leads to a growing demand for water resources that are not present.

Syria relies on agriculture and previously relied on the textile industry for economic strength. Data was gathered from the United States Department of Agriculture and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. Production for cottonseed and wheat decreased the most in 2007, and the textile industry never recovered. Unemployment rates increased in 2007 after the 2006 drought began as well, leading to economic trouble after the highest unemployment rate in 2008 at 10.9%. The Syrian refugee population boomed to 45,000 in 2007 and numbers have only been increasing since then. One discussion that stems from this finding is that the onset of the drought, which affected the agricultural sector and increased unemployment, began the refugee crisis as well as the internal Syrian conflict. The Syrian government is plagued with corruption and short-term planning that exacerbates common pool resources. Few water sustainability policies have been put into place thus far because other sectors in Syria’s economy and society are larger issues at hand. 

Turkey is comprised of 26 sub-regions and drought affects Central-Southern Turkey the harshest. The 2007-2008 Turkish drought is the worst the country has experienced in the past four decades. Residents in Southern Turkey, particularly the small town of Suruç located in sub-region TRC2, are noticing neighbors leaving the area because there is no access to water or employment opportunities. The Turkish government is making claims to scarce water supplies along the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers while also disagreeing to reduce water use. This has caused unimaginable conflict within the Middle Eastern region, specifically nations located downstream.

The Turkish Statistical Institute offers a vast amount of information on the Turkish economy. A secondary database was constructed with detailed information on yearly wheat production totals, agricultural unemployment statistics, and migration rates. I expected to see agricultural unemployment and migration closely correlated because the economy plays a large role on forced migration; therefore, I ran a bivariate correlation on those two variables for the study in Turkey. There are strong, positive correlations for sub-regions located in Southern Turkey. These sub-regins are Adana/Mersin (TR62), Sanliurfa/Diyarbakir (TRC2), and Erzurum/Erzincan/Bayburt (TRA1). All sub-regions see a direct increase in agricultural unemployment after the onset of the drought, with a lag time of 1-2 years maximum. There is a longer lag time of 1.5-2 years of subsequent migration after unemployment increases. Wheat production varies across the three sub-regions, but predominately show a negative linear trend line throughout the time periods examined.

There are two main outlier cases that are located in Central-Southern Turkey that do not show evidence for my hypothesis. The success of TR52 coping with drought (Konya and Karaman) and TR61 (Antalya, Isparta, Burdur) is examined even though they are located in drought-ridden areas where other sub-regions have not coped with the negative economic effects. TR52 experienced a large influx of migrants one year after the drought due to proper implementation of water sustainability policies through the NGO World Wildlife Foundation and local government aid. Residents of TR61 understand that conservation is necessary in preserving water sources and enjoy living within this sub-region. The sub-region also relies on tourism and industrial work for economic stability.

Every variable affecting these two countries shows how important the climate is in regards to a country’s economic health. The amount of literature linking climate change to economic health is increasing in the Middle Eastern region, and this paper finds the data to back up the argument that drought affects the socio-economic status of a country. After looking at the Turkish and Syrian databases offering agricultural production rates, unemployment rates, and migration data, I did find support for my assumptions. Future debate can dive further into what other factors may lead to migration, outside of looking at the agricultural economy. As time passes, more micro-level data may be given to the public regarding Syria and a similar analysis to Turkey can be executed. Overall, migration is not the first option for residents dealing with drought, but the inability to cope due to unemployment and minimal resources leaves many without an option.

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Appendix 1: Level 2 Sub-regions

TR10(Istanbul)

TR21(Tekirdağ,Edirne,Kırklareli)

TR22(Balıkesir,Çanakkale)

TR31(Izmir)

TR32(Aydın,Denizli,Muğla)

TR33(Manisa,Afyon,Kütahya,Uşak)

TR41(Bursa,Eskişehir,Bilecik)

TR42(Kocaeli,Sakarya,Düzce,Bolu,Yalova)

TR51(Ankara)

TR52(Konya,Karaman)

TR61(Antalya,Isparta,Burdur)

TR62(Adana,Mersin)

TR63(Hatay,Kahramanmaraş,Osmaniye)

TR71(Kırıkkale,Aksaray,Niğde,Nevşehir)

TR72 (Kayseri, Sivas, Yozgat)

TR81 (Zonguldak, Karabük, Bartın)

TR82 (Kastamonu, Çankırı, Sinop)

TR83 (Samsun, Tokat, Çorum, Amasya)

TR90 (Trabzon, Ordu, Giresun, Rize, Artvin, Gümüşhane)

TRA1 (Erzurum, Erzincan, Bayburt)

TRA2 (Ağrı, Kars, Iğdır, Ardahan)

TRB1 (Malatya, Elazığ, Bingöl, Tunceli)

TRB2 (Van, Muş, Bitlis, Hakkari)

TRC1 (Gaziantep, Adıyaman, Kilis)

TRC2 (Sanlıurfa, Diyarbakır)

TRC3 (Mardin, Batman, Şırnak, Siirt)